Emmys 2018 – Free Predictions and Betting Odds

Every once in a while, I get the opportunity to write about something other than sports. Don’t get me wrong, sports betting and gambling are my passions in life, but it’s nice to get to shake things up some. If you feel the same way from time to time, you should know that many of the best online betting sites are offering odds on things like politics or entertainment!

At Sportsbetting.ag, I was recently admiring several noteworthy unique gambling opportunities coming up in the near future. They have odds on Season 8 of Game of Thrones, an upcoming Kevin Hart boxing match, 2018 US mid-term elections, and, of course, the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards.

• When: September 17, 2018
• Where to Watch: NBC

This year’s festivities are going to be broadcast on NBC. The network tapped Saturday Night Live creator Lorne Michaels to produce the show, who in turn selected Michael Che and Colin Jost, his two Weekend Update stars, to host. With a couple of seasoned sketch comedy veterans, the 70th iteration of the primetime Emmy’s has a chance actually to be pretty entertaining!

Of course, there’s a way to ensure they’ll be a blast no matter how well the product on stage is received: bet on your favorite categories! As you’ll see in this article, I’m already bracing for some maddening defeats for the shows I love most, so rather than frustratingly ranting and raving about the stupid academy, profiting from their mistakes seems like a better idea.

Some of the picks I’ve made below are based on what I expect to happen after reading way too many expert opinions from people in the entertainment industry, others are wishful thinking, but I’ll let you know which is which in the descriptions.

The first category I’m looking at is likely to be a runaway win for Rachel Broshnahan for her role as Midge Maisel in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Set in the 1950’s, Maisel is a Jewish housewife who supports her businessman husband’s attempt at becoming a comic. As always, he eventually has an affair leaving her to pick up the pieces and become empowered and all of that good stuff.

This is especially “on message” in 2018 with the no-good husband and wife who ends up a much better comedian than her ex-companion ever was. Brosnahan is a natural in the role, and while I think Tracee Ross deserves an Emmy for her work in Black-ish, this year is all about Mrs. Maisel. With such long odds, it’s difficult to find value here, but it may be a decent throw-in on a parlay.

This is the award that I’m most torn about. Both Atlanta and Barry are my favorite comedies currently on television, and both Bill Hader and Donald Glover are in their absolute primes at the moment. Glover is the odds-on favorite at -400, but I’m not sure he’s as much of a sure-thing as the bookies.

While I’d say the writing and comedic value of Atlanta are slightly better than Barry, Hader’s portrayal of the hitman-turned-actor is absolutely brilliant at a higher degree of difficulty.

I’m feeling the upset win on this one. If I were the voters, I’d want to award both of these men, which is precisely what I think they’ll do. Barry is so dark overall; I think they’ll give Bill Hader the “Best Actor” honors alone, while Atlanta cleans up in other categories.

Alright, so here’s the issue with doing a prediction article on the Emmys; the oddsmakers seem to have decent foresight regarding the results, and heavily skew the betting lines. But, it’s not a lot of fun to tell you all to pick the favorite for every bet! There are usually a few surprise announcements during the ceremonies, but it will most likely only be one or two upsets, not ten.

I say all of this because Elisabeth Moss is most likely winning the award for Best Actress in a Drama, but I don’t want to pick her. The Handmaid’s Tale had unprecedented levels of success at the 2017 Emmy’s, which makes me think there’s a slight chance the voters will give the nod to Claire Foy for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth in The Crown.

The actress isn’t returning for season three, so this is the last chance to honor her for the role, plus she’s been a vocal critic of the Hollywood pay-gap, a grip she says Netflix never remedied with back pay for her time on the show. Again, it’s 2018 and identity politics are all the rage, this seems like just the person voters would like to give a platform on awards night. At +550 odds, it’s worth a shot.

(This is a good place to mention that I do not mention identity politics or the current conversations in the US regarding race, gender, etc. to express my own beliefs in any way. As a handicapper, I feel the need to include all factors that may potentially play a part in determining these bets, which can sometimes be a cynical undertaking.)

This is Us is far and away the best network show on television. It’s so rare that programming on the big three channels can provide audiences with such well-written deep characters, intriguing storylines, and emotional investment. Brown’s role as Randall Pearson, a single father of a young daughter named Tess, is the highlight of the series.

It’s possible that Matthew Rhys could swoop in and take this one, but I hope not. What he has going for him is that he’s been nominated several times for his role in The Americans, though he’s never won. With the show coming to an end, and this being its last chance at the Emmy’s, the voters may want to reward the entire body of work. Still, +160 seems a bit low; I’d want better odds for someone to upset Sterling K. Brown.

I’m going to make this one short and sweet. Laura Dern is winning, and there should be riots if she doesn’t. The Tale is a controversial story involving the abuse that Dern’s character experienced as a child at the hands of some trusted adults. Now an adult, she begins looking deeper into her traumatic past, which is all I’ll say as not to spoil anything. Not an easy movie to watch, but a hell of a performance.

This is such a “meh” category. I’m guessing that Criss will win for the Gianni Versace movie, but this isn’t a bad spot to buy Benedict Cumberbatch at +200, as far as betting value is concerned.

Here’s where I see Atlanta getting the praise it deserves as the best comedy on television. The critically-acclaimed FX production followed up a brilliant first season by upping the ante in year two during “robbin’ season” in the city by which the show is named. Donald Glover and the entire cast have really hit their stride, and season two’s “Alligator Man,” the episode nominated for the Emmy is an absolute masterpiece.

Barry is also deserving of being the best comedy, but at +1800 odds the writing is on the wall for this year. For one, it’s most likely too dark of a show for most voters to appreciate as humor. We are dealing with a veteran who’s returned home only to become an assassin. Secondly, the show has only been on for one year, so there’s plenty of time to give the HBO product the accolades it deserves.

Okay, so this is one of those times where I’m picking with my heart over my head. Simply put, I refuse to believe any other show on television is better than Game of Thrones. The Wire and The Sopranos are the only series’ to ever come close, and they’ve both been off air for over a decade.

The smart money is probably on the favored The Handmaid’s Tale, but that show doesn’t have any dragons, white walkers, or John Snow. In season seven, all of the stuff we’ve spent years waiting on finally started happening! That definitely deserves some praise and trophies as far as I’m concerned. The Loot Train scene alone should put an end to any debates about “Best Drama.”

I didn’t watch any of these, but a -1500 odds I’m thinking it’s fairly obvious which made-for-TV movie is winning this category.

“Reality Competition Programs” stink and I can’t believe we’re still doing them. The first Survivor came out when I was in high school, and it’s exploded and run its course about five times since then. Why is anyone still watching; none of these shows has created a star since Terry Fator or Carry Underwood, whichever came last.

Regardless, I see The Voice grabbing a shocking upset over RuPaul’s Drag Race. It flies in the face of my social-phenomenon-based handicapping theories, but the betting lines have been shifting lately, with The Voice gaining ground. Somebody knows something, so I’m jumping in while the singing show is still offered at +500.

I don’t know what to do here. Henry Winkler playing the acting teacher in Barry is one of the most lovable and hilarious characters I’ve ever seen. In fact, if it weren’t for him, I’m not even sure you could still call the show a comedy. If you haven’t watched the show, it’s worth it just to see Winkler attempt to seduce the homicide detective that’s snooping around his classes.

Realistically, Henry Winkler is probably winning this Emmy and deserves to do so. My only issue is that Paper Boi from Atlanta deserves one as well. Donald Glover gets most of the praise for the comedy, but Brian Tyree Henry is perfect as the up-and-coming local rapper in the show. At +600, the bookmakers must not like his chances, but in a just world, I think he takes it.

“Paper Boi, Paper Boi / I’m all about my paper boy.”

Kate McKinnon has taken home the “Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy” two years running, and is the favorite to three-peat in 2018. Her skits as Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live have been a massive hit, especially with Trump in office and the show turning more political. It will be interesting to see if she’ll be honored again after the most recent season fell off a bit after 2016 and 17.

I think Laurie Metcalf should be the front-runner in this category. Her return as Aunt Jackie in the Roseanne reboot was absolute perfection with her liberal politics coming into conflict with Roseanne’s Trump fandom on the show. It will be interesting to see if voters will allow anyone on that show to win, however, after Roseanne’s Twitter ravings and actual political beliefs got the show canned.

In a show with as extensive a cast as Game of Thrones, it’s hard to say that removing any one character would be disastrous for the series. Regardless, I believe Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister is the most vital character in all of Westeros and an integral part of the show’s success. He steals almost every scene he’s in and is able to mix being powerful and arrogant with a certain humor and vulnerability that makes him indispensable to the storylines.

On the other hand, I think Stranger Things may be the most overrated television program of the last several years. Enough of the 80’s movie kids running around and the monsters with big flower heads. David Harbour may be the favorite, but I refuse to believe the universe will allow that to happen with Tyrion Lannister – Hand to Queen Daenerys, Mother of Dragons – in the mix.

In the real world, this award is almost certainly going to one of the women from The Handmaid’s Tale. If I had to guess which one, I’d lean towards Yvonne Stahovski for her role as Serena Joy. The fact that she can make viewers feel any shred of compassion for often-villainous character speaks to what an incredible acting job she does.

However, Thandie Newton deserves the award. Starring as Mae in the HBO show Westworld, Newton steals every scene she’s in and has become an instrumental character. Despite playing a robot, she makes you feel for Mae when she’s hurting. Other times she’s an absolute badass. Whatever situation Thandie lands in as the futuristic ex-brothel owner, you can’t take your eyes off her.

Full disclosure, I did not watch any of these movies. But from my extensive research and the lopsided betting lines, I feel confident in promising you, my beloved reader, that Jeff Daniels is winning for his performance in Godless. I’m assuming Godless does not feature a reprisal of his Harry Dunne character from Dumb and Dumber so I won’t be seeing it either way, but I’m looking forward to his impassioned lecture about whatever on Emmy night.

Here’s the thing, I’ve been in love with Penelope Cruz for the entirety of my adult life. There’s no way I could ever pick someone else to win this category and I’m thrilled she’s the odds-on favorite. When I get crazy successful and rich someday, I plan to marry Ms. Cruz, so I’d prefer she have an Emmy by the time that happens.

This is a really tough category to handicap. USS Callister is an absolutely brilliant episode of Black Mirror, even compared to that series’ many other standouts. I’ll tell you one thing, if you’ve ever played the bad guy in video games, particularly games like Grand Theft Auto, this story is going to make you think. These Black Mirror writers are absolute geniuses, and the way the action unfolds feels like Alfred Hitchcock on steroids. I honestly can’t stop thinking about it.

It’ll be tough to knock off The Tale, although USS Callister is technically the front runner. I’m just not sure I see the voters choosing the Black Mirror due to the enormous gap in seriousness and subject matter. The Tale is undoubtedly the more important piece of art, which could be a deciding factor. But, it doesn’t make you rethink everything you’ve ever done in video games, for whatever that’s worth.

Winning “Best Variety Sketch Series” in 2018 really isn’t saying much. There’s no Chappelle Show or Key & Peele out there anymore to compete with SNL at the moment, giving them what amounts to an automatic win. I mean, they hired Lorne Michaels to produce the show, and two Saturday Night Live cast members to host; who do you think they’re going to give the Emmy to?

They should rename this award to the “Who Bashed Trump the Best Trophy” since that’s basically what it amounts to. The race is between two Daily Show alums, Steven Colbert and John Oliver. Colbert was dead in the water before the 2016 election, and was nearly replaced by James Corden before Trump gave him the green light to get political again, which always served Colbert well at Comedy Central.

John Oliver has a similar act that he does once a week on HBO, although more edgy and well-rounded. He tackles a wide range of topics, going into great depth in what’s become an absurdly formulaic weekly rant about one primary subject each episode. Oliver educates the masses on issues people rarely fully understand, which is a valuable service. He wins in my book for not wholly relying on the President he claims to despise so much for a career, the way Steven does.

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Beyond the all-time casino favorites like blackjack, craps, slots, and video poker and a vast marketplace of sports betting lines, these online operations now sell odds on entertainment events and even politics. While wagering on athletics and playing Double Double Bonus video poker will always be my first loves, these unique gambling opportunities act as a pleasant change of pace. Plus, they can immensely improve the entertainment value of otherwise dull television programming.

In the past, I’ve never given a single thought to the Emmy’s. I don’t care about the fancy gowns, actors and actresses inventing “best at playing make believe” trophies for each other, or their impassioned speeches about whatever “cause” they’re supporting that day. But here’s the thing, the girl I’m dating eats it all up.

Now, we can enjoy the show together! She watches for her reasons, and I’ll be sweating bullets as each envelope is opened like it’s the last two minutes of the Super Bowl; everybody is happy. So, if you’re interested in spicing up the viewing experience, and possibly your relationship, get your picks in before September 17th; hopefully I’ve pointed you in the direction of some big wins!